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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.