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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|