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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – going beyond who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots added later and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which election day went somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president previously backed the progressive now. However it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over half. He has 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on the island with a high participation. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there existed some opposition. But no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I think that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.